Data released by the General Administration of Customs of China show that in the first five months of 2024, China's integrated circuit exports amounted to approximately US$62.613 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.2%. Among them, the export value in May was approximately US$12.634 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.47%. In the first five months, the import value of integrated circuits increased by 13.1% year-on-year.
According to a research report by Guolian Securities, China's semiconductor market accounts for about 30% of the global semiconductor market. Chinese companies have invested heavily in traditional chip manufacturing, and the global chip industry is about to usher in a recovery (mature processes such as 28nm).
According to statistics from some institutions, the production capacity of semiconductor manufacturers in mainland China will increase by 12% year-on-year in 2023, reaching 7.6 million wafers per month. It is expected that the production capacity of Chinese chip manufacturers in 2024 will increase by 13% year-on-year, reaching 8.6 million wafers per month.
It is reported that this wave of export growth was achieved against the backdrop of the United States' export control on advanced process technology and equipment, which led mainland China to expand its investment in mature processes. Behind it are many factors such as wafer fab capacity and process planning, import and export of semiconductor equipment and materials, and competition in chip and foundry production pricing.
According to SEMI statistics, although the semiconductor industry was not very prosperous in 2023, the global wafer fab capacity still grew by 5.5% to 29.6 million wafers per month, and mainland China led this wave of expansion. Data shows that in 2023, mainland China's mature process capacity accounted for 29% of the world, ranking first.
At the same time, the expansion of mainland China's chip production capacity has driven the growth of demand for semiconductor equipment and materials. According to statistics recently released by SEMI and the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ), overall, the sales of the Chinese mainland market in the first quarter of this year reached US$12.52 billion, a surge of 113% over the same period last year, making it the world's largest chip equipment market for the fourth consecutive quarter.
Many Barclays analysts believe that China's chip production capacity has the potential to increase by 60% in the next three years, especially the mature process of 40nm-65nm, which will be the main contributor to the increase.
According to statistics, in addition to the 7 wafer fabs that have been suspended, there are currently 44 wafer fabs in mainland China, including 25 12-inch wafer fabs, 4 6-inch fabs, and 15 8-inch fabs. In addition, there are 22 wafer fabs under construction, including 15 12-inch fabs and 8 8-inch fabs. In the future, manufacturers such as SMIC, Jinghe Integrated Circuit, Hefei Changxin, and Silan Microelectronics also plan to build 10 wafer fabs, including 9 12-inch fabs and 1 8-inch fab. Overall, it is expected that by the end of 2024, China will have built 32 large wafer fabs, most of which will focus on mature processes.
Regarding future development, TrendForce said that it is expected that China's mature process capacity will account for 39% of the world's total in 2027.
